AnalysisBusiness

US cotton export sales show tentative stability amid cautious mill demand

US upland cotton export sales posted a modest improvement in the week ending December 4, according to the latest weekly report from the US Department of Agriculture. While the numbers suggest a degree of stability compared with recent weeks, overall demand remains restrained when viewed against the broader backdrop of global textile market uncertainty.

Net upland cotton sales for the current marketing year reached 153,300 running bales, up from 135,900 bales the previous week. This figure was almost unchanged from the same week last year, when sales stood at 153,000 bales. The similarity points less to a rebound and more to a holding pattern, with buyers maintaining coverage rather than expanding it.

Shipment activity softened slightly. Weekly shipments slipped to 101,600 running bales from 122,100 bales a week earlier, though volumes matched last year’s level. This indicates that exporters continue to fulfil existing contracts at a steady pace, even as new commitments remain limited.

Cumulative upland cotton exports climbed to 2.41 million running bales, compared with 2.31 million bales the previous week. The total also exceeded the 2.28 million bales shipped by the same point last year. Outstanding sales edged higher to 3.47 million bales, though they remained well below the 4.73 million bales recorded a year ago. This gap reflects weaker forward coverage by mills, many of which are reluctant to lock in volumes amid uncertain yarn demand and tight margins.

Forward bookings for the next marketing year remained negligible. Only 300 running bales were sold, sharply lower than the 3,300 bales booked during the same week last year. The lack of early commitments suggests that spinners are delaying decisions on future supply until downstream demand becomes clearer.

Buying activity during the week remained selective. Vietnam led weekly purchases with 70,400 running bales, maintaining its position as the most consistent buyer. Pakistan followed with 14,100 bales, while the Republic of Korea booked 11,700 bales. Turkiye added 11,000 bales, India 7,600 bales, and Bangladesh 4,400 bales. Compared with historical patterns, participation was narrower, reinforcing the view that mills are buying on a hand-to-mouth basis rather than building inventory.

Pima cotton export activity followed a similar trend. Net Pima sales for the current marketing year reached 6,200 running bales, slightly below the level seen during the same week last year. Outstanding Pima sales declined to 58,500 bales from 63,100 bales the previous week and stood well below the 105,600 bales recorded a year earlier.

Accumulated Pima exports rose to 119,600 running bales from 104,600 bales a week earlier. The increase was driven largely by shipments rather than fresh buying interest. Premium spinners appear to be moving cautiously, reflecting weak demand conditions in higher-value textile segments.

Overall, the latest export data suggest that US cotton demand has found a temporary floor, supported by steady shipments and limited replenishment buying. At the same time, the absence of stronger forward sales highlights ongoing hesitation among global mills as they navigate uncertain consumer demand, pricing pressure, and uneven recovery across textile markets.

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